Tariff tornado far from over, Israelsen predictsTariff tornado far from over, Israelsen predicts
The Trump team is likely to continue using tariffs as a key policy tool for as much as a year or more. It will put pressure on strategic planning.

At a Glance
- Big tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China were announced last week.
- The Mexican and Canadian tariffs were put on hold, but the 10% China tariff has taken effect.
- More tariff news is sure to come, an expert says.
The rapidly evolving tariff policy of the Trump administration has cast a pall over strategic supply chain planning in the dietary supplement industry, one expert says. The best guess is that it will be a wild ride for at least the next six months, requiring brands to think on their feet.
In an interview with SupplySide Supplement Journal, Loren Israelsen, president of the United Natural Products Alliance (UNPA), gave his insight into what’s in store for the people who manage purchasing and strategic planning for supplement companies. The big caveat is that much of what’s happening has little precedent.
In recent days the White House had announced 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico and an 10% on goods coming in from China (on top of existing tariffs applied to Chinese goods).
In the most recent development, the tariffs against Canada and Mexico have been put on hold for 30 days while negotiations proceed over drug trafficking and border security. The tariffs targeting China went into effect on Tuesday.
Old tool used for new purpose
“Tariffs are one of the oldest games in the book,” Israelsen said. “Almost always it was used to rectify an economic or trade imbalance created by a country protecting or subsidizing a given industry.”
“But this administration has decided it will use tariffs as a primary tool of foreign policy,” he added.
In other words, goals that in the past might have been approached with high-level negotiations (which could sometimes become protracted) are being attacked with tariff announcements that have hard deadlines attached.
“For Mexico, the message was, you’ve got to fix this border leakage problem. The one I don’t get is blaming Canada for fentanyl. The data doesn’t support that,” he said.
As blunt as the instrument is, Israelsen said the early returns might indicate that the Trump team will continue down the path of using tariffs threats as bargaining chips.
“As a tool, this could be seen to have been very effective,” he said. “We’re on the front of some high activity that might last a year. Trump said over the weekend that the EU was next, and it will be fairly soon.”
The long-term damage to good relations with long-term allies and the subsequent diminution of the so-called “soft power” of the U.S. is harder to quantify.
Situation in China by far the most important
For the dietary supplement industry, the situation vis-à-vis China is by far the most important. In the past several years policymakers have awoken to the threat posed by the West’s high reliance on China as a semiconductor supplier. Steps have been taken to attempt to deal with that, such as the CHIPS Act in 2024 that committed $52 billion spread over five years to rebuild domestic chip manufacturing capacity.
Israelsen said similar critical supply chain weaknesses exist in the dietary ingredient realm, and in recent years it has been difficult to get federal government policymakers to understand that issue as they seem to have with the chips question. He said there is some reason to hope that the current administration’s staff might be more open to being educated on the issue.
Vitamin D3, folic acid are problems
Israelsen cited the supply of folic acid and vitamin D3 as some of the most pressing examples. China is far and away the dominant supplier of both ingredients.
Vitamin D3 is a key component of feed blends aimed at cows, pigs and chickens. Barnyard chickens might thrive without special feed additives. But chickens raised under factory conditions need supplemental D3 to form strong enough eggshells.
Additional D3 and folic acid are critical for successful reproduction of pigs and cows in containment facilities, too, Israelsen said.
[To learn more about vitamin D3 – from sourcing issues to science, claims and ingredient suppliers – download the new SupplySide Supplement Journal report, “Ingredients Insider – A primer for top five nutritional ingredients.”]
The 10% tariffs on China went into effect on Tuesday. China responded with tariffs of its own on U.S.-made goods.
Trying to open up Chinese market
UNPA has a particular insight into the Chinese market. In 2016 the organization started building bridges to regional governments and regulatory authorities within China to make market entry easier for North American products.
Part of the impetus for that effort was the strong affinity Chinese consumers have for products that can claim to be made in the USA. After the melamine scandal in 2008 and some continued instances of food fraud, food contamination and counterfeiting, Chinese consumers have been wary of the perceived weak oversight of products made in their own country and have believed US-made products and those of other foreign countries to be the safer, higher-quality choice.
UNPA made significant progress in forging relationships with the right government officials and helping companies navigate market entry. But the situation has grown more difficult in recent years as relations between China and the West worsened. The global pandemic drove its own additional wedge into that relationship.
“’Made in USA’ still has a very strong consumer cache to it,” Israelsen said. “At the same time the Chinese government has pounded into people that they should buy Chinese-dmade products. And to do business in China has become vastly more expensive than it was five to seven years ago.”
China market becoming more opaque
Israelsen said the number of foreign nationals living in China is only a fraction of what it was seven or more years ago, making it ever harder to get accurate information about what’s going on within the country in terms of dietary ingredient manufacturing capacity and investment.
The key takeaway, he said, is that big changes are underway, and past roadmaps might prove to be of only limited use on this new journey.
“We have to accept the fact that our trade relationships will be fundamentally different, and we will have to adapt accordingly,” he said.
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